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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.