🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."