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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.